Smart money on the All Blacks to win Rugby World cup - according to old foe, Michael Foley...

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The smart money for next year's Rugby World Cup should be on New Zealand, according to one of their toughest old Australian foes.

Michael Foley has played against and then coached against enough New Zealand teams in his time to deserve an audience on the subject. And the rugged ex-Wallaby hooker, the man credited with turning around what was a powder puff Australian scrum into a growing unit of threat, says that it is the All Blacks who look the best bet at this stage.

Foley, now forwards coach of the Brumbies, said "I think New Zealand are shaping up as a team that is going to come together at the right time. I like the way they're going about their plans and preparations and I think they are discovering the benefits of not throwing everything and everyone out with the bath water after their failure in the last World Cup.

"I heard the clamour for Robbie Deans to become All Blacks coach after that 2007 World Cup. But I always wondered why you would chuck out all that talent.
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"For me, Smith is a great figure, a wonderful coach. He's a super coach yet he's also prepared to take a more back seat under this structure for the good of the squad and the overall set-up. Some people might not be willing to do that but he shows what a team man he is by doing so."

Foley believes that the All Blacks' failure in last year's Tri-Nations could turn out to be a blessing in disguise. "They had won it four years in succession but you can't go on winning it forever. What it has meant is that they are usually flying high around this time and then they hit the World Cup and it is a hurdle for them. It's almost like they have always peaked too soon.

"But after struggling last year, they have won some big games since. You watched them blow France off the park in Marseille and you thought to yourself, now there's the New Zealand you thought they can be.

"Having players like Dan Carter back for the whole Super 14 this year will be a big advantage. Carter is going to be better for being back in New Zealand rugby leading into this year's Tri-Nations. I think they are about to get Carl Hayman back too. From what I hear, he will play this year's Tri-Nations but he will play better next year.

"You just see them as a coming side. Ma'a Nonu is now brilliant in attack but also quite pragmatic when the situation requires. They're definitely coming together for the next World Cup."

What of South Africa? He raises one serious nagging doubt as to whether they can become the first country in rugby history to defend successfully their World Cup crown. "I think South Africa definitely has it within them....to win it...but it's going to come down to how much they look for the 'We know how to do it' sort of approach or whether they are prepared to challenge themselves and find a better way at that critical time because they will be well known to the opposition.

"If they chase levels of improvement they will be as good as anybody. But there is a real danger for them to hit that World Cup being very comfortable. If they do that they will have problems winning it again."

Finally, what of the Australians? "I think Australia's chances need to be judged pretty much on this year. After last year, we need to draw a line almost in terms of what direction we are going in. Last year was not a good year for Australia but this year may be significantly different. They are a team that looks to stabilise around selection and you are seeing incremental improvement. I think they will be there or thereabouts. They certainly have enough players to be a real threat to the tournament."